BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in Arizona has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-13%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Falcon Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Falcon in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Prairie Falcon Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Arizona is projected to fall about 35% by 2027 — from 0.08 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Arizona is projected to fall about 35% by 2027 — from 0.08 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.060.000.13
20240.060.000.13
20250.060.000.13
20260.050.000.13
20270.050.000.13

Prairie Falcon Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Castle Butte320071993
Greasewood219961996
Portal119771975
Squaw Peak119691969
Rucker119971997
Rose Wells119701970
Oraibi120181991
Oatman119951995
Quartzsite120182018
Vicksburg119771977
Blue119841984
Laguna120221969
Dateland120121996
Ajo120001969
Pomerene119771977
San Simon120161976
Lukeville119801980
Peña Blanca120181981
Patagonia120221973
Sunizona119871987
Cutter 2120172017
Toroweap120192006
Dry Park120192019
Cow Springs120181994
Maine120102010

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.