BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in Washington has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-27%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Falcon Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Falcon in Washington. See the full index history below.

Prairie Falcon Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Washington is projected to fall about 51% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Washington is projected to fall about 51% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.040.000.12
20250.040.000.12
20260.040.000.12
20270.040.000.12
20280.040.000.12

Prairie Falcon Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moses Coulee420231995
Selah220122012
Connell220151976
Hartline220052001
Pomeroy120212021
Brewster120032003
Wilbur120002000
Ellensburg120001983
Harrington120052002
Reardan120112011
Yakima120211994
Nighthawk120082008
Columbia Nwr120182018
Mercer120171968
Asotin120092009
Keystone120081994
Bickleton120111992
Richland120162011

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.