BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in Texas has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-53%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Falcon Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Falcon in Texas. See the full index history below.

Prairie Falcon Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.010.000.01
20210.010.000.01
20220.010.000.01
20230.010.000.01
20240.000.000.01

Prairie Falcon Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skellytown220172017
Valentine219821974
Circle120152015
New Waverly119761976
Channing120082008
Texline120111977
Waka120022002
Marathon120182004
Miami120022002
Quitman Canyon 2120192019
Hot Springs120142014
Cornudas119751975
Bear Mtn120072007

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.