BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in Oregon has surged: up 174% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+174%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Falcon Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Falcon has surged in Oregon: up 174% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Prairie Falcon Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.27 (95% range 0.10–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.27 (95% range 0.10–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.090.41
20260.250.090.42
20270.260.090.42
20280.260.100.43
20290.270.100.43

Prairie Falcon Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Catlow Rim720241993
Imnaha420231971
Battle Mtn320171987
Unity319921992
Green Mtn.320241995
Three Forks220242006
Blitzen 2220241994
Lone Rock220241972
Blitzen219931971
Princeton219811974
Emigrant Lk219981998
Blizzard Gap220221985
Cecil220072007
Twickenham220242022
Harney Lake220241994
Crane220211993
Umatilla220211992
Malheur Res.220232023
Ordnance119791972
Albee119911991
Summit Pr120171991
Zumwalt119961995
Deschutes120212012
Ochoco119781978
Logdell119991999

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.