BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Oregon

All statesBirds of prey

Prairie Falcon in Oregon has surged: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+134%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Falcon Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Falcon has surged in Oregon: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Prairie Falcon Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Oregon is projected to rise about 86% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.09–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+86%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Oregon is projected to rise about 86% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.09–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.080.41
20270.250.080.41
20280.250.090.42
20290.260.090.42
20300.260.090.42

Prairie Falcon Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Unity319921992
Green Mtn.320241995
Three Forks220242006
Lone Rock220241972
Imnaha220251971
Blitzen219931971
Princeton219811974
Emigrant Lk219981998
Blizzard Gap220221985
Cecil220072007
Madras220252010
Twickenham220242022
Harney Lake220241994
Crane220211993
Catlow Rim220251993
Umatilla220211992
Malheur Res.220232023
Blitzen 2120251994
Ordnance119791972
Albee119911991
Summit Pr120171991
Zumwalt119961995
Deschutes120212012
Ochoco119781978
Logdell119991999

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.