BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Montana

All statesBirds of prey

Prairie Falcon in Montana has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-51%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Falcon Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Falcon has fallen sharply in Montana: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Prairie Falcon Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.000.14
20270.050.000.14
20280.050.000.14
20290.050.000.14
20300.050.000.14

Prairie Falcon Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Highwood219721972
Savage220031981
Beaverhead220231978
Gildford220232023
Bull Mtn.220092008
St Mary120011987
Hay Lake120151988
Virgelle120241982
Cleveland120151984
Harlem119831981
Malta120171986
Glasgow120022002
Glen120232007
Redstone119741974
St Regis120072007
Polson120251993
Willow Creek 2120241989
Augusta120171984
Great Falls120151973
Elevation Mt119941994
Roy120071988
Brusett120011988
Jordan119841984
Circle119731973
Elliston119981998

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotanebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.