BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in California

All statesBirds of prey

Prairie Falcon in California has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+21%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Falcon Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Falcon in California. See the full index history below.

Prairie Falcon Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.02–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.02–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.020.12
20270.070.020.12
20280.070.020.12
20290.070.020.12
20300.070.020.12

Prairie Falcon Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trona219951995
Coachella Cn219751975
Ravendale220081980
Joshua Tree220021972
Jacumba219761976
Carrizo Pln220251991
Dorris220181980
Macdoel220181978
Tracy219931993
Cholla Gard.220091998
Nubieber120131989
Red Bluff120061995
Rumsey119941982
Dardanelle120151980
Hughson119761976
Big Pine120251971
Tres Pinos120022002
Ubehebe120211986
Haiwee Res120041993
Parkfield120252025
Onyx120011971
Goldstone120062006
Willow Spgs119811975
Anza Borrego120131978
Hollister119751975

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Other States

arizonacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.