BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in California has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+17%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Falcon Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Falcon in California. See the full index history below.

Prairie Falcon Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.02–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.02–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.010.12
20260.070.010.12
20270.070.010.12
20280.070.020.12
20290.070.020.12

Prairie Falcon Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Joshua Tree220021972
Jacumba219761976
Carrizo Pln220231991
Cholla Gard.220091998
Dorris220181980
Macdoel220181978
Tracy219931993
Trona219951995
Coachella Cn219751975
Ravendale220081980
Kelso Valley120061984
Nubieber120131989
Iron Gate120021991
Ventucopa120021975
Red Bluff120061995
Greenwater V120241981
San Benito Mtn.120082008
Rumsey119941982
Dardanelle120151980
Hughson119761976
Big Pine119721971
Likely120161975
Tres Pinos120022002
Crowley Lake120232005
Madeline120122012

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.