BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in Idaho has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+69%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Falcon Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Falcon has risen sharply in Idaho: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Prairie Falcon Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Idaho is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.03–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Idaho is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.03–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.020.29
20260.160.020.30
20270.160.030.30
20280.170.030.30
20290.170.030.30

Prairie Falcon Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Preston320182018
Blackft Res219891984
Leadore220241989
Pasadena Val220041988
Twin Buttes120231995
Lost River120191986
Kyle Canyon120221988
Circular Bu120172017
Tractor Flat120151998
Baker120042004
Challis119851985
Dubois120242000
Blacks Creek120172002
Craters120181979
Ririe120012001
Triangle119981991
Glenns Ferry119851985
Magic Mtn120171991
Acequia120122012
Henry119791979
Crane Creek120092009
Iron Springs120241991
Silver City120192006
Carey120022002
Mud Lake120232007

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.