BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in New Mexico has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-86%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Falcon Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Falcon has collapsed in New Mexico: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Prairie Falcon Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.13
20260.030.000.13
20270.030.000.13
20280.030.000.13
20290.030.000.12

Prairie Falcon Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sabinoso320211980
Crownpoint219951969
Torreon220081977
Correo219761976
Gallinas220032001
Sanostee220232023
Nageesi120081992
Cebolla119841984
Farley120091980
Grenville120211969
Salt Lake 2120162016
Pecos120091973
Fence Lake120211987
Valencia119881976
Horse Spgs120211989
Horse Mtn119771977
Carrizozo119991999
Caprock120002000
Gage120112011
Dulce120132006
Jornada120152001
Maxwell120092001
Rodeo120151985
Gallo Arroyo120131999
Shiprock120161999

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.