BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in Utah has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-55%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Falcon Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Falcon has fallen sharply in Utah: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Prairie Falcon Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Utah is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Utah is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.38
20260.150.000.38
20270.150.000.38
20280.150.000.37
20290.150.000.37

Prairie Falcon Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gandy620152002
Indian Peak420162005
Tule Valley420122012
Dragerton319981989
Fish Springs320171987
Bonanza320131995
M Warner Res320232012
Salt Springs220171986
Timpie Spg220021985
Beaver219941974
Aneth220091987
Fairfield220192002
Uintah Nf219901990
Jensen220121996
Delta220062001
Notom220191991
Callao220181992
Peplin Mountain220242000
Snowville220241999
Clive220212005
Canyonlands220042004
Wendover119741972
Promontory120222011
Hyrum119751975
Altonah120072007

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexaswashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.