BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesBirds of prey

Prairie Falcon in Wyoming has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-45%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Falcon Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Falcon in Wyoming. See the full index history below.

Prairie Falcon Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Wyoming is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Wyoming is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.010.24
20270.120.010.24
20280.120.010.24
20290.120.000.24
20300.120.000.23

Prairie Falcon Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buford320171977
Rock River319991993
Midvale220222022
Clark220021990
Lovell220001995
Meeteetse220251997
Arvada220082008
Recluse219861986
Sweetwater220251980
Shawnee220192005
Rock Springs220211980
Thunder Basin220252011
Hampshire220241997
Ne Entrance120051998
Cody119891989
Otto120232023
Basin120172017
Wyarno119951982
Dubois120092009
Nowood120242001
Natrona119891975
Bill120001998
Fontenelle120241984
Elk Horn120011992
Bear Creek120151979

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.