BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in Prairie Potholes has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-14%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Falcon in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Prairie Falcon In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.04
20260.020.000.04
20270.020.000.04
20280.020.000.04
20290.020.000.04

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GildfordMONTANA22023
LockhartMINNESOTA11999
Big StoneMINNESOTA11996
Hay LakeMONTANA12015
VirgelleMONTANA12024
ClevelandMONTANA12015
HarlemMONTANA11983
MaltaMONTANA12017
GlasgowMONTANA12002
RedstoneMONTANA11974
Great FallsMONTANA12015
ShelbyMONTANA12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.