BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Falcon In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesBirds of prey

Prairie Falcon in Badlands and Prairies has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-39%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Falcon in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Prairie Falcon In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.14
20270.060.000.14
20280.060.000.14
20290.060.000.14
20300.050.000.14

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
French CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA32005
HighwoodMONTANA21972
SavageMONTANA22003
Bull Mtn.MONTANA22009
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA21998
ArvadaWYOMING22008
RecluseWYOMING21986
ShawneeWYOMING22019
Thunder BasinWYOMING22025
HampshireWYOMING22024
RoyMONTANA12007
BrusettMONTANA12001
JordanMONTANA11984
CircleMONTANA11973
Two DotMONTANA12024
ShawmutMONTANA11997
FlatwillowMONTANA12006
IngomarMONTANA12015
ForsythMONTANA11999
LocateMONTANA11987
Reed PointMONTANA12015
St XavierMONTANA12008
BrandenbergMONTANA12007
PowdervilleMONTANA11984
Jordan SouthMONTANA12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.