BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in Northern Rockies has surged: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+146%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Falcon has surged in Northern Rockies: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Prairie Falcon In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.18
20260.090.000.18
20270.090.000.18
20280.090.000.18
20290.090.000.18

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UnityOREGON31992
Rock RiverWYOMING31999
BeaverheadMONTANA22023
Malheur Res.OREGON22023
TwickenhamOREGON22024
MidvaleWYOMING22022
ClarkWYOMING22002
LovellWYOMING22000
Rock SpringsWYOMING22021
MaybellCOLORADO12022
LayCOLORADO12024
ChallisIDAHO11985
Sawtooth CtyIDAHO12011
Crane CreekIDAHO12009
St MaryMONTANA12001
St RegisMONTANA12007
PolsonMONTANA12022
AugustaMONTANA12017
EllistonMONTANA11998
BoulderMONTANA12018
ChestnutMONTANA11968
LaurelMONTANA12013
Red RockMONTANA12022
Pablo Res.MONTANA12015
Wise RiverMONTANA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.