BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-73%Since 1971
46Routes In Region
49Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Prairie Falcon has fallen sharply in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029
0.06Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1795% range
±77.7%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.060.000.18
20260.060.000.18
20270.060.000.17
20280.060.000.17
20290.060.000.17

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
TronaCALIFORNIA21995
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA21975
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA22002
Cholla Gard.CALIFORNIA22009
Squaw PeakARIZONA11969
OatmanARIZONA11995
QuartzsiteARIZONA12018
VicksburgARIZONA11977
LagunaARIZONA12022
DatelandARIZONA12012
AjoARIZONA12000
LukevilleARIZONA11980
Cibola LakeARIZONA12018
Gila BendARIZONA12022
ArabyARIZONA12002
Cabeza PrietARIZONA12018
Casa GrandeARIZONA12008
Cactus ForestARIZONA12016
Cutter 2ARIZONA12017
Hope 2ARIZONA12019
UbehebeCALIFORNIA12021
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA12004
OnyxCALIFORNIA12001
GoldstoneCALIFORNIA12006
Willow SpgsCALIFORNIA11981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.