BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in Coastal California has surged: up 224% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+224%Since 1975
26Routes In Region
45Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Prairie Falcon has surged in Coastal California: up 224% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.01–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2028
0.07Projected 2028 index
0.01–0.1395% range
±85.4%Backtest error
19722028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.070.010.12
20250.070.010.12
20260.070.010.12
20270.070.010.13
20280.070.010.13

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Coastal California.
JacumbaCALIFORNIA21976
Carrizo PlnCALIFORNIA22023
TracyCALIFORNIA21993
Red BluffCALIFORNIA12006
RumseyCALIFORNIA11994
HughsonCALIFORNIA11976
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA12002
HollisterCALIFORNIA11975
CoalingaCALIFORNIA12005
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA11994
OrlandCALIFORNIA11972
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA12021
SisquocCALIFORNIA12013
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA12018
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA11993
SangerCALIFORNIA12016
VentucopaCALIFORNIA12002
LockwoodCALIFORNIA12001
OnealsCALIFORNIA12023
GreenfieldCALIFORNIA12017
AthloneCALIFORNIA12007
Anza 2CALIFORNIA12018
Cal Hot SpgsCALIFORNIA11993
AlamarCALIFORNIA12015
Tracy 2CALIFORNIA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.