BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in Coastal California has surged: up 224% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+224%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Falcon has surged in Coastal California: up 224% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Prairie Falcon In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.01–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.01–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.070.010.12
20250.070.010.12
20260.070.010.12
20270.070.010.13
20280.070.010.13

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JacumbaCALIFORNIA21976
Carrizo PlnCALIFORNIA22023
TracyCALIFORNIA21993
Red BluffCALIFORNIA12006
RumseyCALIFORNIA11994
HughsonCALIFORNIA11976
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA12002
HollisterCALIFORNIA11975
CoalingaCALIFORNIA12005
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA11994
OrlandCALIFORNIA11972
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA12021
SisquocCALIFORNIA12013
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA12018
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA11993
SangerCALIFORNIA12016
VentucopaCALIFORNIA12002
LockwoodCALIFORNIA12001
OnealsCALIFORNIA12023
GreenfieldCALIFORNIA12017
AthloneCALIFORNIA12007
Anza 2CALIFORNIA12018
Cal Hot SpgsCALIFORNIA11993
AlamarCALIFORNIA12015
Tracy 2CALIFORNIA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.