Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Prairie Falcon In Sierra Madre Occidental
Prairie Falcon in Sierra Madre Occidental has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1976.
-75%Since 1976
16Routes In Region
21Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Prairie Falcon has collapsed in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1976.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±198%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2027
0.00Projected 2027 index
0.00–0.1195% range
±198%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| 2024 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental
| Blue | ARIZONA | 1 | 1984 |
| Pomerene | ARIZONA | 1 | 1977 |
| San Simon | ARIZONA | 1 | 2016 |
| Peña Blanca | ARIZONA | 1 | 2018 |
| Patagonia | ARIZONA | 1 | 2022 |
| Sunizona | ARIZONA | 1 | 1987 |
| Maine | ARIZONA | 1 | 2010 |
| Bartlett Res | ARIZONA | 1 | 2018 |
| Alpine | ARIZONA | 1 | 1994 |
| Mcneal | ARIZONA | 1 | 1999 |
| Carr Mtn | ARIZONA | 1 | 2000 |
| Sprucedale | ARIZONA | 1 | 1997 |
| Portal | ARIZONA | 1 | 1977 |
| Sunizona 2 | ARIZONA | 1 | 2001 |
| Rucker | ARIZONA | 1 | 1997 |
| Vicks Peak | NEW-MEXICO | 1 | 2006 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.