BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Falcon In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalBirds of prey

Prairie Falcon in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-71%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Falcon has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Prairie Falcon In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±212%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±212%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±212%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.11
20270.000.000.11
20280.000.000.11
20290.000.000.11
20300.000.000.11

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA22025
BlueARIZONA11984
PomereneARIZONA11977
San SimonARIZONA12016
Peña BlancaARIZONA12018
PatagoniaARIZONA12022
SunizonaARIZONA11987
MaineARIZONA12010
Bartlett ResARIZONA12018
AlpineARIZONA11994
McnealARIZONA11999
Carr MtnARIZONA12000
SprucedaleARIZONA11997
PortalARIZONA11977
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12001
RuckerARIZONA11997
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.