Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Prairie Falcon In Chihuahuan Desert
Prairie Falcon in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1981.
-74%Since 1981
16Routes In Region
27Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Prairie Falcon has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1981.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.0695% range
±40.5%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| 2026 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| 2027 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Routes In Chihuahuan Desert
| Valentine | TEXAS | 2 | 1982 |
| Carrizozo | NEW-MEXICO | 1 | 1999 |
| Gage | NEW-MEXICO | 1 | 2011 |
| Jornada | NEW-MEXICO | 1 | 2015 |
| Rodeo | NEW-MEXICO | 1 | 2015 |
| Laborcita | NEW-MEXICO | 1 | 2012 |
| Bitter Lake | NEW-MEXICO | 1 | 2016 |
| Red Rock | NEW-MEXICO | 1 | 2007 |
| Hatchet Peak | NEW-MEXICO | 1 | 2024 |
| Engle | NEW-MEXICO | 1 | 1981 |
| Sunshine Wll | NEW-MEXICO | 1 | 2017 |
| Hot Springs | TEXAS | 1 | 2014 |
| Cornudas | TEXAS | 1 | 1975 |
| Bear Mtn | TEXAS | 1 | 2007 |
| Marathon | TEXAS | 1 | 2018 |
| Quitman Canyon 2 | TEXAS | 1 | 2019 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.