BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-74%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Falcon has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Prairie Falcon In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.06
20260.010.000.06
20270.010.000.06
20280.000.000.06
20290.000.000.06

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ValentineTEXAS21982
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO11999
GageNEW-MEXICO12011
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12015
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12015
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12012
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12016
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12007
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO12024
EngleNEW-MEXICO11981
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO12017
Hot SpringsTEXAS12014
CornudasTEXAS11975
Bear MtnTEXAS12007
MarathonTEXAS12018
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.