Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon In Chihuahuan Desert

Prairie Falcon in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-74%Since 1981
16Routes In Region
27Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Prairie Falcon has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.000.0695% range
±40.5%Backtest error
19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.010.000.06
20260.010.000.06
20270.010.000.06
20280.000.000.06
20290.000.000.06

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Chihuahuan Desert.
ValentineTEXAS21982
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO11999
GageNEW-MEXICO12011
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12015
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12015
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12012
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12016
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12007
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO12024
EngleNEW-MEXICO11981
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO12017
Hot SpringsTEXAS12014
CornudasTEXAS11975
Bear MtnTEXAS12007
MarathonTEXAS12018
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.