BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Falcon In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieBirds of prey

Prairie Falcon in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-51%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Falcon has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Prairie Falcon In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±167.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±167.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±167.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.17
20270.080.000.17
20280.080.000.17
20290.080.000.17
20300.080.000.17

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO32021
BriggsdaleCOLORADO22018
EllicottCOLORADO22017
UlyssesKANSAS22010
SkellytownTEXAS22017
PinneoCOLORADO11990
FlemingCOLORADO12025
KiowaCOLORADO12013
Last ChanceCOLORADO12009
AbarrCOLORADO12010
RushCOLORADO12019
BoyeroCOLORADO12015
Mica ButteCOLORADO11982
GilpinCOLORADO12025
Two ButtesCOLORADO12011
Wildhorse LCOLORADO12002
Adams Co.COLORADO12016
Gordon CreekCOLORADO12008
BethuneCOLORADO12008
EdisonCOLORADO12023
CrowleyCOLORADO11989
CheyenneCOLORADO12009
VillegreenCOLORADO12012
CampoCOLORADO12016
Cone MtnCOLORADO12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.