BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Merlin Population Analysis

FalconidaeBirds of preyFalco columbarius

Merlin has no long-term trend on record.

n/aSince n/aTrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
301RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Merlin

The Merlin (Falco columbarius) is a North American member of the Falcons & Caracaras (Falconidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the birds of prey.

Size
10–23.5 in long (25–60 cm) — a streamlined raptor (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
Diet
Live prey — small mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and large insects (carrion for vultures).
Range
Recorded on 301 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 21 states, most concentrated in the Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Family
Falconidae · Birds of prey

Notable Merlin TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Merlin. See the full index history below.

Merlin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Merlin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.01 (95% range 0.01–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Merlin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.01 (95% range 0.01–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.010.02
20270.010.010.02
20280.010.010.02
20290.010.010.02
20300.010.010.02

Where the Merlin Is Detected

BBS routes recording Merlin, sized by most recent count.

Merlin Population Trend by State

Merlin population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska+66%198763
Idaho-69%19768
Maine+76%199619
Massachusettsinsufficient datan/a1
Michigan+32%198827
Minnesota+231%198935
Montana-42%198128
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a1
New Hampshire-34%20096
New York+241%200821
North Dakota+166%200311
Ohioinsufficient datan/a1
Oregoninsufficient datan/a3
Pennsylvaniainsufficient datan/a6
South Dakotainsufficient datan/a6
Vermontinsufficient datan/a1
Virginiainsufficient datan/a1
Washington-21%198614
West Virginiainsufficient datan/a1
Wisconsin+71%199527
Wyoming-65%197721

Merlin Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Merlin population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-59%19999
BCR 4+16%198835
Northern Pacific Rainforest+32%198921
Great Basin-37%197613
Northern Rockies-59%197631
Prairie Potholes-9%199119
Boreal Hardwood Transition+395%197469
Atlantic Northern Forest+105%199633
Badlands and Prairies+9%197730
Prairie Hardwood Transition+46%201214

Merlin Conservation Status

Merlin is tracked across BBS survey routes; no formal conservation-status flag is recorded here.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.