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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Merlin Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Merlin in Alaska has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+76%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Merlin Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Merlin has surged in Alaska: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Merlin Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Alaska is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.04–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Alaska is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.04–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.030.20
20260.120.040.20
20270.120.040.20
20280.120.040.20
20290.120.040.20

Merlin Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Merlin in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Toklat420211986
Kalifonsky420182013
Togiak River420042004
Ft. Richrdsn320082007
Tatalina320122012
Chistochina220231993
Maclaren220012001
Kuskulana220242024
Caribou Mtn.220222000
Haines220231989
Moose Creek220101995
Cordova220242024
Sheep Mtn220111984
Cohoe220232013
Eagle120232023
Chatanika R120212010
Birch Lake120072007
Livengood120102010
Chiniak120221991
Slana120141994
Paxson Lake119971997
Nabesna Road120241996
Monahan120181996
Cantwell120212007
Chena Hot Spring 2120152004

Merlin Population Trend in Other States

idahomainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.