BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Merlin Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Merlin in Minnesota has surged: up 216% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

+216%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Merlin Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Merlin has surged in Minnesota: up 216% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

Merlin Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Minnesota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.02–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Minnesota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.02–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.010.16
20260.090.010.16
20270.090.020.16
20280.090.020.16
20290.090.020.16

Merlin Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Merlin in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Debs320232019
Sherry Lake220222021
Crane Lake220232003
Lake Bronson220001998
Cromwell119831983
Wigwam Bay120152015
Backus120232023
Pine River120232023
Edwards120212021
Evergreen120092007
Hovland120171997
Lockport119931993
Sawbill Lndg120022002
Hart Lake120171989
Floodwood119681968
Cohasset120072001
Wylie120232005
Little Fork120242015
Lude120232004
Erie120122010
Grygla120172005
Badger120172000
Nett Lake120242024
Mahtowa120011993
Mcgregor120241998

Merlin Population Trend in Other States

alaskaidahomainemassachusettsmichiganmontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.