BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Merlin Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Merlin in Minnesota has surged: up 216% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

+216%Since 1989
33Routes In State
31Years

Notable Merlin Trends in Minnesota

long arc increasecomputed index

Merlin has surged in Minnesota: up 216% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

Merlin Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Minnesota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.02–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029
0.09Projected 2029 index
0.02–0.1695% range
±31.8%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.090.010.16
20260.090.010.16
20270.090.020.16
20280.090.020.16
20290.090.020.16

Merlin Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Merlin in Minnesota.
Debs320232019
Sherry Lake220222021
Crane Lake220232003
Lake Bronson220001998
Cromwell119831983
Wigwam Bay120152015
Backus120232023
Pine River120232023
Edwards120212021
Evergreen120092007
Hovland120171997
Lockport119931993
Sawbill Lndg120022002
Hart Lake120171989
Floodwood119681968
Cohasset120072001
Wylie120232005
Little Fork120242015
Lude120232004
Erie120122010
Grygla120172005
Badger120172000
Nett Lake120242024
Mahtowa120011993
Mcgregor120241998

Merlin Population Trend in Other States

alaskaidahomainemassachusettsmichiganmontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.