BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Merlin Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Merlin in Michigan has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+56%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Merlin Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Merlin has risen sharply in Michigan: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Merlin Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.01–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.01–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.010.14
20260.080.010.14
20270.080.010.14
20280.080.010.14
20290.080.010.15

Merlin Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Merlin in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cunard320212014
Gibbs City220212013
Ishpeming220212015
Hubbard Lake219881988
Ontonagon120181972
Bergland120222009
Marenisco120142004
Bootjack120232005
Ned Lake120152009
Herman120152013
Imp Lake120002000
Betchler Lks120092009
Brocky Lake120232008
Seney Nwr120162016
Shingleton120122012
Walloon Lake 2120072007
Sidnaw120162016
Big Island Lake120092009
Muskallonge120221994
Tahquamenon120112011
Gilchrist120181996
Skegemog Pt120192011
Remus120192019
Pickford120092009
Frederic119821982

Merlin Population Trend in Other States

alaskaidahomainemassachusettsminnesotamontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.