BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Merlin Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Merlin in Montana has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-47%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Merlin Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Merlin in Montana. See the full index history below.

Merlin Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Montana is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Montana is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.08
20260.030.000.08
20270.030.000.08
20280.030.000.08
20290.030.000.08

Merlin Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Merlin in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cleveland319911982
Libby Dam219861981
Glasgow219951995
Ingomar220242008
Forsyth220222017
St Mary119931991
Hay Lake120142014
Harlem120042004
Glen120082008
Willow Creek 2120002000
Redstone120161969
Bull Mtn.120091997
Polson119931993
Augusta120032003
Two Dot120052005
Flatwillow119991999
Locate120162003
Laurel120041996
Brandenberg119911991
Powderville120171971
Heart Butte120242024
Dinosaurs H.M.120182018
Philipsburg120162016
Maynard Coulee120242024
Pablo Res.120242024

Merlin Population Trend in Other States

alaskaidahomainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotanebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.