BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Merlin In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Merlin in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 460% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+460%Since 1974
69Routes In Region
38Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Merlin has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 460% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.05–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+81%Change by 2029
0.12Projected 2029 index
0.05–0.1995% range
±42.8%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.110.040.18
20260.110.050.18
20270.120.050.18
20280.120.050.19
20290.120.050.19

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Merlin in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
CunardMICHIGAN32021
DebsMINNESOTA32023
IrmaWISCONSIN32010
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN22021
IshpemingMICHIGAN22021
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN21988
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA22022
Crane LakeMINNESOTA22023
ChaffeyWISCONSIN22022
ShanagoldenWISCONSIN22007
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN22021
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN22023
CavourWISCONSIN22019
OntonagonMICHIGAN12018
BerglandMICHIGAN12022
MareniscoMICHIGAN12014
BootjackMICHIGAN12023
Ned LakeMICHIGAN12015
HermanMICHIGAN12015
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN12023
ShingletonMICHIGAN12012
MuskallongeMICHIGAN12022
TahquamenonMICHIGAN12011
GilchristMICHIGAN12018
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.