BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Merlin In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Merlin in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-56%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Merlin in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Merlin In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±144.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.03
20260.000.000.03
20270.000.000.03
20280.000.000.03
20290.000.000.03

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Merlin in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Libby DamMONTANA21986
Green RiverWYOMING21982
NaplesIDAHO12022
AveryIDAHO12009
CascadeIDAHO11972
BurgdorfIDAHO12015
St MaryMONTANA11993
PolsonMONTANA11993
AugustaMONTANA12003
LaurelMONTANA12004
Pablo Res.MONTANA12024
St. Mary 2MONTANA12024
GlenMONTANA12008
Willow Creek 2MONTANA12000
Heart ButteMONTANA12024
PhilipsburgMONTANA12016
Eagle CreekOREGON12005
KellerWASHINGTON11986
ChewelahWASHINGTON12017
CodyWYOMING12012
BasinWYOMING11974
Bear CreekWYOMING11989
Patrick DrawWYOMING11976
Hunter PeakWYOMING11997
TensleepWYOMING12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.