Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Merlin In BCR 4

Merlin in BCR 4 has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+23%Since 1988
35Routes In Region
36Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Merlin in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Merlin in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.03–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2029
0.14Projected 2029 index
0.030.2695% range
±58%Backtest error
19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.140.030.25
20260.140.030.25
20270.140.030.25
20280.140.030.25
20290.140.030.26

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Merlin in BCR 4.
ToklatALASKA42021
KalifonskyALASKA42018
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA32008
TatalinaALASKA32012
ChistochinaALASKA22023
MaclarenALASKA22001
CohoeALASKA22023
Caribou Mtn.ALASKA22022
Moose CreekALASKA22010
KuskulanaALASKA22024
EagleALASKA12023
Chatanika RALASKA12021
Birch LakeALASKA12007
LivengoodALASKA12010
SlanaALASKA12014
MonahanALASKA12018
CantwellALASKA12021
L SalchaALASKA11988
Chena Hot SpALASKA11990
Kenny LakeALASKA12017
ChickenALASKA11994
SavageALASKA12021
Hatcher PassALASKA12015
Swan Lake RdALASKA12004
Anchor RiverALASKA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.