BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Merlin In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Merlin in Great Basin has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-39%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Merlin in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Merlin In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±133.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.05
20260.010.000.05
20270.010.000.05
20280.010.000.05
20290.010.000.04

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Merlin in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blacks CreekIDAHO51982
ReardanWASHINGTON22024
SpringfieldIDAHO11980
RirieIDAHO12010
Kyle CanyonIDAHO12024
MontagueOREGON11997
TwispWASHINGTON11998
ArdenvoirWASHINGTON11971
KendallWASHINGTON12008
GlacierWASHINGTON12004
NighthawkWASHINGTON12024
YakimaWASHINGTON12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.