BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Merlin In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Merlin in Badlands and Prairies has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+21%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Merlin in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Merlin In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.07
20260.030.000.07
20270.030.000.07
20280.030.000.07
20290.030.000.07

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Merlin in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA32012
IngomarMONTANA22024
ForsythMONTANA22022
BillWYOMING21999
ShawneeWYOMING22019
Seely 2WYOMING22003
Two DotMONTANA12005
FlatwillowMONTANA11999
LocateMONTANA12016
BrandenbergMONTANA11991
PowdervilleMONTANA12017
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA12018
Maynard CouleeMONTANA12024
Bull Mtn.MONTANA12009
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA12002
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA12024
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA12003
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA12006
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA11990
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA11970
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA11992
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA12003
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA12010
SundanceWYOMING12007
SeelyWYOMING12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.