BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Merlin In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Merlin in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 195% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+195%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Merlin in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Merlin In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.01–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Merlin in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.01–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19912029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.10
20260.050.000.10
20270.050.010.10
20280.060.010.10
20290.060.010.10

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Merlin in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarmonyMAINE21991
CooperMAINE22016
MedwayMAINE22015
Weeks BrookMAINE22015
LempsterNEW-HAMPSHIRE22016
MilanNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
MckeeverNEW-YORK22021
NewcombNEW-YORK22022
Wilson MillsMAINE12015
BethelMAINE12019
HartfordMAINE12016
Moose RiverMAINE12001
Carrying PlMAINE12021
GreenvilleMAINE12006
BenedictaMAINE12008
Clayton LakeMAINE11999
Ft FairfieldMAINE11998
St DavidMAINE12004
Priestly Br.MAINE11998
Northfield 2MAINE12016
StacyvilleMAINE12023
CornvilleMAINE12019
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE12015
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE12023
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.