BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barred Owl Population Analysis

StrigidaeBirds of preyStrix varia

Barred Owl has surged: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+130%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,813RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Barred Owl

The Barred Owl (Strix varia) is a North American member of the Owls (Strigidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the birds of prey.

Size
5–27.5 in long (13–70 cm) — a nocturnal raptor (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
Diet
Live prey — small mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and large insects (carrion for vultures).
Range
Recorded on 1,813 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 41 states, most concentrated in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Family
Strigidae · Birds of prey

Notable Barred Owl TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in surveyed states: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barred Owl Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.17 (95% range 0.15–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.17 (95% range 0.15–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.140.19
20270.170.150.20
20280.170.150.20
20290.170.150.20
20300.170.150.20

Where the Barred Owl Is Detected

BBS routes recording Barred Owl, sized by most recent count.

Barred Owl Population Trend by State

Barred Owl population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+94%196894
Alaskainsufficient datan/a2
Arkansas+130%196954
Californiainsufficient datan/a2
Connecticut+46%197916
Delaware+98%19708
Florida+121%196895
Georgia+298%197090
Idahoinsufficient datan/a6
Illinois+364%196876
Indiana+56%197035
Iowa+92%197319
Kansas13×196941
Kentucky+149%196943
Louisiana+141%197074
Maine-5%197546
Maryland+455%196861
Massachusetts+111%197622
Michigan+35%197651
Minnesota+119%197148
Mississippi+141%197055
Missouri+479%197381
Montanainsufficient datan/a3
Nebraska-57%19837
New Hampshire+332%196925
New Jerseyinsufficient datan/a7
New York+188%196968
North Carolina+333%197084
Ohio+237%197040
Oklahoma+148%196951
Oregon-63%201115
Pennsylvania+186%197073
Rhode Island+136%19874
South Carolina-48%196838
Tennessee+115%196844
Texas+0%196983
Vermont+376%197425
Virginia+204%196965
Washington+171%199432
West Virginia+89%197548
Wisconsin+457%196882

Barred Owl Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Barred Owl population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest+260%199834
Great Basin-38%199117
Northern Rockies-64%19928
Prairie Potholes-12%19858
Boreal Hardwood Transition+164%197095
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+170%196939
Atlantic Northern Forest+245%1970119
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+106%197236
Edwards Plateau-50%19815
Oaks and Prairies+151%196956
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+392%1968173
Prairie Hardwood Transition+236%196894
Central Hardwoods+313%1968134
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+61%196997
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+330%196859
Southeastern Coastal Plain+127%1968300
Appalachian Mountains+416%1968265
Piedmont+167%1969107
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+275%196893
Peninsular Florida+96%196854
Gulf Coastal Prairie-59%197018

Barred Owl Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 130% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.