BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barred Owl In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasBirds of prey

Barred Owl in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+61%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has risen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barred Owl In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.02–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.02–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.030.52
20270.270.030.52
20280.270.020.52
20290.270.020.52
20300.270.020.51

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Barred Owl in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IndianolaOKLAHOMA52025
Union HillTEXAS42021
RamseyARKANSAS31997
ChathamLOUISIANA31970
TroutLOUISIANA32023
Mount UnionLOUISIANA32023
HargisLOUISIANA32011
Neches BithTEXAS32017
Dry ForkARKANSAS22021
Magazine MtnARKANSAS22019
De RidderLOUISIANA22014
ClayLOUISIANA22025
De QuincyLOUISIANA22021
NatchezLOUISIANA22025
Big CedarOKLAHOMA22023
BlancoOKLAHOMA21997
McalesterOKLAHOMA21971
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA22021
Mt. HermanOKLAHOMA22016
LivingstonTEXAS21994
AthensTEXAS22023
Liberty HillTEXAS22025
Bon WierTEXAS22021
Mt. SelmanTEXAS22025
Easton 2TEXAS22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.