BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barred Owl In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaBirds of prey

Barred Owl in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barred Owl In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.40–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.40–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.40–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.700.381.0
20270.700.381.0
20280.710.391.0
20290.720.401.0
20300.720.401.0

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Barred Owl in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PinecrestFLORIDA122025
Green SwampFLORIDA72025
KenansvilleFLORIDA62025
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA52024
BelmoreFLORIDA32022
MabelFLORIDA32010
Wildernes PkFLORIDA32014
RomeoFLORIDA22019
Myakka HeadFLORIDA22011
San AntonioFLORIDA22025
ScottsmoorFLORIDA22022
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA22024
IndiantownFLORIDA22015
SandyFLORIDA22014
PalmdaleFLORIDA21991
Mt. OliveFLORIDA22019
CroomFLORIDA22025
PinelandsFLORIDA22018
CitrusFLORIDA22025
Merritt IslFLORIDA22004
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA22022
MicanopyFLORIDA11990
St AugustineFLORIDA12024
Polk CityFLORIDA12023
ChildsFLORIDA12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.