BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

Barred Owl in Vermont has surged: up 327% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+327%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barred Owl Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Vermont: up 327% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Barred Owl Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Vermont is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.78 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.01–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±119.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Vermont is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.78 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.01–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.000.55
20260.270.000.55
20270.280.000.55
20280.280.000.56
20290.280.010.56

Barred Owl Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Barred Owl in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Landgrove219971997
S Reading220241979
Gaysville220011985
Post Mills219941975
W Rutland220242017
East Calais220241993
Hardwick220241967
Fletcher220241992
Marlboro120221986
North Pownal120161978
Stratton120101990
Shaftsbury120161979
S Wallingfrd120211974
St Johnsbury120242019
East Haven120241971
Northfld Fls120181992
Middlesex120241974
Newbury119951991
Greensboro120242024
Waterville119791979
Hinesburg119861980
Colchester120162006
Newbury 2120232005
Stowe120232011
Bristol120172017

Barred Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.