BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Barred Owl in Missouri has surged: up 553% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+553%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barred Owl Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Missouri: up 553% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Barred Owl Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Missouri is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.43–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Missouri is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.43–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.660.390.93
20260.670.400.94
20270.680.410.95
20280.690.420.96
20290.700.430.97

Barred Owl Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Barred Owl in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Woodlandville720232016
Emden520242018
Sni Mills319901983
Mcfall320241997
Clementine 2320072007
Frankford320241985
Deventer219861986
Peace Valley220171975
Akers220191973
Filley220241977
Syracuse220241985
Centertown220241987
Rensselaer219811981
Kahoka219931993
Tarkio219811981
Williamsvill220221997
Centerville220232006
Marshfield220042004
Millwood220222007
Luray220232015
Eugene220222015
Richland220212015
Doe Run220242024
Kennett220242024
Pulaski120132005

Barred Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.