BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Barred Owl in North Carolina has surged: up 225% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+225%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barred Owl Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in North Carolina: up 225% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Barred Owl Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.39 (95% range 0.20–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.39 (95% range 0.20–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.180.57
20260.380.190.58
20270.390.190.58
20280.390.200.58
20290.390.200.59

Barred Owl Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Barred Owl in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chowan River420062006
Kinston320241966
Jamesville320241983
Lloyd Xroads320211998
Dortches320241991
Green Swamp320042003
Climax220142000
Arcola220231976
Youngsville220231981
Milltail Cr220241992
California 2220242015
Eden220241996
Cypress Cr220221995
Mattamuskeet220022001
Pinetops220211998
Rhems219931993
Wilgrove220241999
Siloam220122012
Osmond220182001
Dudley220192012
Cypress Lakes220092009
Goldston220032003
Dismal Swamp220241996
Table Rock220212021
Kyle220241998

Barred Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.