BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Barred Owl in Tennessee has surged: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+181%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barred Owl Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Tennessee: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barred Owl Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Tennessee is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.22–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Tennessee is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.22–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.200.58
20260.400.210.58
20270.400.210.59
20280.410.220.59
20290.410.220.60

Barred Owl Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Barred Owl in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pawpaw420121967
Moscow320241966
Big Sandy320241974
Sweetlips320181999
Silerton320231968
Smokey Jct320211984
Cades Cove320182004
Indian Mound 2320232004
Tibbs219921966
Mansfield220231980
Campbellsville220151982
Petersburg220021966
Fish Springs220211977
Mecca220192003
Pawpaw 2220182013
Signal Mtn120211985
Tiptonville120161966
Brownsville120221980
Whiteville120211966
Jones Gap119901987
Humboldt119851972
Pond Creek120241982
Indian Mound119971968
Collinwood120241968
Wrigley120141968

Barred Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.