BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Barred Owl in Arkansas has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+59%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barred Owl Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has risen sharply in Arkansas: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barred Owl Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Arkansas is projected to rise about 383% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.03–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+383%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±128.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Arkansas is projected to rise about 383% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.03–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.020.65
20260.340.020.65
20270.340.030.65
20280.340.030.66
20290.340.030.66

Barred Owl Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Barred Owl in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Saffell620191978
Ramsey319971972
Hughes220231989
West Tyler219821973
South Bend220231983
Avoca220112011
England220132010
Gillett220162010
Kelso220142010
Magazine Mtn220191996
Dry Fork220212002
Old Milo120071969
Eudora120001995
Locust Bayou120231972
Stamps120231974
Hope119901968
Ashdown120131968
Crows119911968
Poyen120041972
Hollywood120221971
Blakely119921975
Waldron120241967
Harrisburg120191998
Hatfield 2120232019
Augusta119831974

Barred Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskacaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.