BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Barred Owl in Kansas has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

12×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barred Owl Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Kansas: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barred Owl Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.42 (95% range 0.19–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.42 (95% range 0.19–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.160.62
20260.400.170.63
20270.400.170.64
20280.410.180.64
20290.420.190.65

Barred Owl Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Barred Owl in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt320221979
Seneca320211984
Trading Post320242000
Goessel320242001
Olathe220171976
Dover220221973
Buckeye220121994
Kanopolis220232001
Grantville220211986
Hanover220182018
Hollenberg220221994
Beloit 2220082008
Pittsburg220172005
Hopewell220142014
Severance220232000
Olsburg220232007
Melrose120181967
Galesburg120241977
Lapland120182005
Wellington119701970
Dalton120242005
St John120012001
Coats119971997
Barclay120152004
Wreford120231977

Barred Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.