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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barred Owl Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesBirds of prey

Barred Owl in Minnesota has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+119%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barred Owl Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Minnesota: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Barred Owl Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Minnesota is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Minnesota is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.000.20
20270.100.000.20
20280.100.000.20
20290.100.000.20
20300.100.000.20

Barred Owl Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Barred Owl in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cromwell420251972
Money Creek220131981
Lakeville220192007
Courtland219851985
Wigwam Bay219811977
Floodwood220111970
Island Lake219881988
Fairmont220252025
Mcgregor220231994
Bigfork220142013
Glendale220252013
Warroad220042004
Greenbush220242024
Chatfield119761973
Sherburne Nr119921992
Tamarac Nwr120231993
Millville120251970
Minnetonka119921992
Whitewater120002000
Cass Lake120141981
Nebish120231989
Princeton120161997
Osseo120252025
St Stephen120031984
Mille Lacs120121971

Barred Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.