BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barred Owl Population Trend in Michigan

All statesBirds of prey

Barred Owl in Michigan has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+35%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barred Owl Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barred Owl in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Barred Owl Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Michigan is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.01–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Michigan is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.01–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.010.18
20270.100.010.18
20280.100.010.18
20290.100.010.18
20300.100.010.18

Barred Owl Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Barred Owl in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Homer320142006
Ontonagon220122012
Marenisco220132013
Wilson220081971
Barry S.G.A. 2220192014
Skegemog Pt220131976
Adrian219711971
Hubbard Lake219951974
Hiawatha Nf220252007
Mayfield220252009
Harrietta120242024
Bergland120221982
Bootjack120091992
Ned Lake120252012
Belding 2120122012
Crystal Fls120181988
Gibbs City120172017
Maple Grove119921990
Imp Lake120071992
Brocky Lake120132013
Cunard119921978
Shingleton120232008
Creighton119851985
Isabella119841984
Bear Lake120221978

Barred Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.