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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barred Owl Population Trend in Florida

All statesBirds of prey

Barred Owl in Florida has surged: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+121%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barred Owl Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Florida: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barred Owl Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Florida is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 0.86 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.42–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Florida is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 0.86 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.42–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.650.400.91
20270.660.400.91
20280.660.410.92
20290.670.410.92
20300.670.420.93

Barred Owl Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Barred Owl in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pinecrest1220251966
Green Swamp720251987
Covington620211966
Kenansville620251969
Pleasant Grove 2520242011
Blountstown420221970
Hixtown Swmp420241987
Belmore320221972
Mabel320101966
Pinetta320251990
Wildernes Pk320141992
Broad Branch220211971
Romeo220191988
Myakka Head220111966
San Antonio220251987
Scottsmoor220221986
Ft Lonesome220241970
Indiantown220151969
Alligator Pt220241997
Sandy220141987
Palmdale219911991
New Hope220102009
Mt. Olive220192012
Seminole Hills 2220222013
Croom220251990

Barred Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.