BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Barred Owl in New York has surged: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+197%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barred Owl Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in New York: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barred Owl Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in New York is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.01–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in New York is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.01–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.010.26
20260.130.010.26
20270.130.010.26
20280.140.010.26
20290.140.010.26

Barred Owl Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Barred Owl in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Inlet520161992
S Horicon420161977
Swain320031980
Old Forge 2320142014
Dexter Lake319751975
Oxford 2220241984
Middletown220102010
Catskills220151995
Meridale220231975
Phillips Cr220141976
Horseshoe L.220041993
Canadice L220052005
Mt Morris220161984
Mckeever219931993
Underwood 2220092009
Old Forge220061977
Degrasse220211999
Wanakena220241983
Gabriels220211978
Bedford119771967
Rhinebeck120172006
Rifton119811981
Mt Hope119911979
Austerlitz120071999
Petersburg120061981

Barred Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.