BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Barred Owl in Pennsylvania has surged: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+122%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barred Owl Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Pennsylvania: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Barred Owl Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.04–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.04–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.030.13
20260.080.030.13
20270.080.030.13
20280.080.030.13
20290.090.040.13

Barred Owl Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Barred Owl in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Starlight 2520242022
Russell City220151982
Rosecrans219821979
Cherry Sprs220211984
Mawr Glen220231967
Bow Bridge220182018
Peru Mills220231988
Naginey219931989
Collegeville220162016
Harrisville220032003
Clover120132013
Harmonsburg119761972
Ellenton120241988
Whig Hill119731966
Wyalusing120151985
Teepleville120211974
Rothrock Sf120181993
Lynch119971997
N Washington119891989
N Pine Grove119831983
Pottersdale120102010
Odin120101990
Betula120032001
Ridgway119951995
Eldred120131996

Barred Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.