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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barred Owl Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesBirds of prey

Barred Owl in Pennsylvania has surged: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+186%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barred Owl Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barred Owl in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Barred Owl Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.04–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.04–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.040.14
20270.090.040.14
20280.090.040.14
20290.090.040.14
20300.090.040.14

Barred Owl Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Barred Owl in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Starlight 2520242022
Tussey Mtn.420251997
Russell City220151982
Rosecrans219821979
Cherry Sprs220211984
Bow Bridge220182018
Peru Mills220231988
Naginey219931989
Collegeville220162016
Warrens Mill220251975
Harrisville220032003
Clover120132013
Harmonsburg119761972
Ellenton120251988
Whig Hill119731966
Wyalusing120251985
Teepleville120211974
Rothrock Sf120181993
Lynch119971997
N Washington119891989
N Pine Grove119831983
Pottersdale120252010
Odin120101990
Betula120032001
Ridgway119951995

Barred Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.