BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Barred Owl in Virginia has surged: up 331% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+331%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barred Owl Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Virginia: up 331% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barred Owl Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Virginia is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.09–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Virginia is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.09–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.080.43
20260.260.090.44
20270.260.090.44
20280.270.090.44
20290.270.090.45

Barred Owl Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Barred Owl in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron Mtn.320061999
Cornland320141975
Partlow219941990
Douthat219971992
Shenandoa Np220241995
Carters Brdg220132010
Gloucester220091994
Waverly219831983
Front Royal220241993
Newsoms220241979
Branchville220131966
Dismal Swamp220111993
Truhart220242004
Star Tannery120242024
Chincoteag W119981996
W Augusta120211971
Churchville119811979
Stanley119921968
Tryme120151977
Edinburg120211982
Jerome120182018
Rural Retrt120241995
Port Royal120171977
Bald Knob120231996
Isom120071972

Barred Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.