BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Barred Owl in Kentucky has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+87%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barred Owl Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Kentucky: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barred Owl Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Kentucky is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.09–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Kentucky is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.09–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.070.49
20260.290.080.50
20270.290.080.50
20280.290.080.50
20290.300.090.51

Barred Owl Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Barred Owl in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Morganfield1020242022
Apex420192005
Drakesboro319901990
Mammoth Cave North320092009
Cumberlnd Gp220181995
Keysburg220181968
Monticello220022002
Riverqueen220212021
Pippa Passes219941988
Kehoe 2220192013
Kehoe219741967
Mammoth Cave220111998
Bardwell 2220242006
Lovelacevile120241972
Shiloh120231969
Canton120241971
Cedar Grove120211975
Iron Bridge119831979
Sulphur Lick120152015
Hegira120212013
Sunnybrook120121994
Bardwell120031970
Dixon120242022
Pleasurevill119801980
Carter120221983

Barred Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.