BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

Barred Owl in Massachusetts has surged: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+111%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barred Owl Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Massachusetts: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Barred Owl Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±223%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±223%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±223%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.000.51
20260.250.000.52
20270.250.000.52
20280.250.000.52
20290.260.000.53

Barred Owl Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Barred Owl in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Belchertown520241995
Holden220221979
Marion119761976
Ware River120181993
Prattville120052005
Maynard120162016
Littleton119951976
Princeton119701970
E Pepperell119751975
Warren119701970
S Barre120162006
N Orange120241976
Cummington120121981
Chesterfield120191999
Cheshire119861982
Pittsfield120011976
Sheffield120121980
Monterey120222022
N. Andover120042004
Warren 2120172016
Cummington 2120222017
Hancock120141999

Barred Owl Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.