BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Barred Owl in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 344% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+344%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 344% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barred Owl In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.07–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.07–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.060.25
20260.160.060.25
20270.160.060.26
20280.160.060.26
20290.160.070.26

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Barred Owl in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS52024
GreenwichCONNECTICUT42014
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE42021
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT32024
BeltsvilleMARYLAND32004
CokesburyMARYLAND32024
NewarkMARYLAND31974
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE31971
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT22022
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT22018
WarrenCONNECTICUT22010
FrankfordDELAWARE21976
CheltenhamMARYLAND21988
MillingtonMARYLAND22022
MelitotaMARYLAND22014
HarmonyMARYLAND21986
Golden HillMARYLAND22011
Forest GroveMARYLAND22018
Island CreekMARYLAND22023
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS22022
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY22023
GloucesterVIRGINIA22009
TruhartVIRGINIA22024
MysticCONNECTICUT12021
WillimanticCONNECTICUT12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.