BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Barred Owl in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+80%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barred Owl In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.25–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.25–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.460.220.70
20260.470.230.71
20270.470.240.71
20280.480.240.72
20290.490.250.73

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Barred Owl in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arenosa CrkTEXAS72024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA52017
SchroederTEXAS51996
BeggsOKLAHOMA42023
YoakumTEXAS32023
ChoctawOKLAHOMA22017
NobleOKLAHOMA22015
HeyburnOKLAHOMA22024
GauseTEXAS21996
E GeorgetownTEXAS21979
Massey LakeTEXAS22023
OsageTEXAS21988
Blue RidgeTEXAS22024
CreedmoreTEXAS22000
Wills PointTEXAS22016
LocoOKLAHOMA11977
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA12008
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12010
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA11967
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12010
TatumsOKLAHOMA12024
DuncanOKLAHOMA12022
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12018
HobsonTEXAS11997
CampbelltonTEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.