BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barred Owl In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieBirds of prey

Barred Owl in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-59%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Barred Owl In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 68% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 68% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.000.65
20270.110.000.64
20280.100.000.63
20290.090.000.63
20300.090.000.62

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Barred Owl in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moon Lake 2TEXAS42025
McfaddinTEXAS42016
Hinkles FerTEXAS32024
LafitteLOUISIANA21991
GlencoeLOUISIANA22014
MauriceLOUISIANA22009
KaplanLOUISIANA22011
HackberryLOUISIANA11978
EstherLOUISIANA12022
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA12023
WoodlawnLOUISIANA12019
VanderbiltTEXAS11970
DanburyTEXAS12025
KatyTEXAS12023
Rock IslandTEXAS12025
Oyster LakeTEXAS12023
Moon LakeTEXAS12010
Goliad PrairieTEXAS12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.