BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Barred Owl in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-69%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.64
20260.100.000.64
20270.100.000.63
20280.090.000.62
20290.080.000.61

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Barred Owl in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McfaddinTEXAS42016
Hinkles FerTEXAS32024
LafitteLOUISIANA21991
GlencoeLOUISIANA22014
MauriceLOUISIANA22009
KaplanLOUISIANA22011
HackberryLOUISIANA11978
EstherLOUISIANA12022
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA12023
WoodlawnLOUISIANA12019
VanderbiltTEXAS11970
DanburyTEXAS11998
KatyTEXAS12023
Rock IslandTEXAS12019
Oyster LakeTEXAS12023
Moon LakeTEXAS12010
Moon Lake 2TEXAS12024
Goliad PrairieTEXAS12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.