BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Barred Owl in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+118%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Barred Owl In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.16 (95% range 0.01–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.16 (95% range 0.01–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.010.31
20260.160.010.31
20270.160.010.31
20280.160.010.31
20290.160.010.31

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Barred Owl in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McnaughtonWISCONSIN32023
FlambeauWISCONSIN32016
OntonagonMICHIGAN22012
MareniscoMICHIGAN22013
Ned LakeMICHIGAN22023
WilsonMICHIGAN22008
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN22013
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN21995
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN22019
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA21981
BackusMINNESOTA22024
FloodwoodMINNESOTA22011
Island LakeMINNESOTA21988
McgregorMINNESOTA22023
BigforkMINNESOTA22014
WarroadMINNESOTA22004
GreenbushMINNESOTA22024
BayfieldWISCONSIN22024
IrmaWISCONSIN21974
Popple RiverWISCONSIN22024
CrandonWISCONSIN22009
AmbergWISCONSIN22019
Washington IWISCONSIN21978
BerglandMICHIGAN12022
BootjackMICHIGAN12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.